Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Possible Impact of Pakistan Emergency on India

We are all aware that President Pervez Musharraf has declared emergency in Pakistan. In summary, an emergency is a situation where the head of a country suspends the constitution and the army takes control of the law and order situation. India, so far has had muted reactions to the political turmoil in the neighboring country. However in my opinion India must remain vigilant to any terrorist activity or military aggression from the other side of the border. Musharraf has proclaimed that the emergency has been declared to curb corruption and terrorism. India must remember that Pakistan terrorism had started against India and it has only recently turned towards the west .At this critical juncture Pakistan military cannot chase the terrorists across the border to Afghanistan as this would require confrontation with the Afghans and would not be appreciated by the US as they have soldiers in that region. Pakistan will find it difficult to push the terrorists across the Iran border. However they may find it simple to push the terrorists across the long porous border with India. Any regime to be popular in Pakistan has to be anti India. Hence it is very likely that Musharraf and the army may stage a limited war with India like Kargil and then withdraw troops when the International community applies pressure. India should deploy its troops along the border and have the International media report from there.

Given this scenario, India must be prepared and be vigilant during this phase of political turmoil in Pakistan. My sincere hope is that Pakistan has reached a level of maturity where they would not create conditions for such a scenario, restore democracy and continue the peace process with India and continue their crack down of terrorists.

No comments: